DJ Major's NBA Blog

Sorry it took me so long to share my thoughts on the conference finals due to high school playoffs in the area and one really long and disappointing doctors appointment, but enough excuses, lets get to business.

Oklahoma City Thunder - San Antonio Spurs
The Thunder made some great adjustments.

In the first two games the Thunder struggled with their rotations and with defending the high pick and roll that Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw ran on almost every possession. In last night’s game everything changed. The Thunder challenged the Spurs every second and played with a ton of energy, but you’ve heard that from every other article you’ve read.

The biggest difference in the game was the Thunder’s defense. First they put Thabo Sefaolosha on Tony Parker and while Parker scored 16 points in the game he couldn’t get into the lane as much as he wanted. As a result Manu Ginobili took just five shots the entire game. To compare that to some other Spurs, DeJuan Blair took seven shots in ten minutes of garbage time and Gary Neal took eleven shots. The Thunder won every second of this game evidenced by the fact that they out-rebounded, out-assisted, out-stole and out-blocked the Spurs.

Don’t expect the Spurs to go away.

The Spurs have lost their 20 game win streak, but Steven Jackson summed it up best whe talking about what the loss means to the team; “We had a good run. It’s just one loss.” While most teams would think they have to make adjustments or come up with a new plan, the Spurs aren’t going to panic and will run their same offense and defense. They’ll just run it better and faster, which means that you can expect Ginobili and Duncan to show up for this game as well as coach Gregg Popovich making some minor changes in order to get Parker open.That means the Thunder can’t stand pat and think this is a series now, they have to play with the same intensity and sense of urgency they played with last night.

Keys to Victory: Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Miami Heat:

Hit your free throws.

It’s a shame that a team with this many shooters on it missed 16 free throws in game two. Had the Heat made half of their missed opportunities game two would’ve never went into overtime. The Heat will get to the line a lot the rest of this series especially LeBron James and Dwayne Wade and they have to take advantage of the charity stripe or they’ll lose one of these games simply because they couldn’t.

Get out on the break.

A big reason for the Heat’s third quarter in game two was because the Heat love to run and the Celtics have trouble defending the break. If the Heat can generate some turnovers and run even on the inbounds they can not only get some easy buckets, but put the Celtics in the same foul trouble that they were in on Sunday night.

Find a way to limit Rajon Rondo.

It’s pretty obvious that the Heat can’t stop Rondo when he wants to score, so the Heat will just have to find a way to limit how much he scores. Chances are he won’t have another shooting night like he did on Sunday, but they have to find a way to keep him out of the lane even if that means putting Wade or LeBron on him full time. Wade would be the better choice because he can guard Rondo while Mario Chalmers guards Ray Allen and his bad ankles.

Boston Celtics:

Stay out of foul trouble.

This is easier said than done considering the Heat’s talent as well as their size advantage, but the Celtics had three players foul out in game two and if they’re going to compete the rest of this series that can’t happen, especially when it comes to Paul Pierce. The Celtics must find a way to keep Pierce on the floor because without him all Rondo has as backup is Kevin Garnett who was non-existent in the overtime period of game two.

Get back on defense.

The Celtics love to crash the offense boards, especially Rondo who’ll crash the defensive board as well, but when the Celtics crash the guys who don’t stand around to see if they get the board and that won’t work cause the Heat will be on the move to create a mismatch and if they get the rebound they’ll throw the ball 90 feet without a problem.

Make sure Rondo stays aggressive.

The Celtics only shot at winning tonight is if Rondo is aggressive with the ball. That doesn’t necessarily mean he has to shoot it a lot, but he has to drive and he has to get into the lane to get the focus on him. When he’s able to do that Garnett can hit his mid-range jumpers and Pierce can get open looks from the outside as well as Allen. If that doesn’t happen then the Celtics offense becomes a slow, stagnant group without ball movement.

The Miami Heat battled injuries and the media in their last series against the Indian Pacers, but when things got scary LeBron James and Dwayne Wade carried them to victory with an aggressive two man offense. Now they have to take on a desperate Celtics team that is going to leave it all on the court knowing this is their last shot and if the Heat don’t win, they’ll get hit hard by the media for failing to reach the ultimate goal two years in a row.

The Celtics took down the Philadelphia 76ers in game seven with solid defense and timely scoring. Now they have to overcome injures and age to defeat a younger, faster Heat team. However, the Celtics come into the series brimming with confidence after going 3-1 against the Heat during the regular season.

Strengths:

Without Chris Bosh in the middle the Miami Heat have to do most of the scoring on the perimeter or just in front of it. While this would be disaster situation for most teams, the Heat have the talent to win this way. James (29.0ppg, 8.7rpg in the playoffs) has been solid all post-season and Wade found his game in just enough time to take down the Pacers. Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers and others will chip in, but these two will do the bulk of the offensive work.

The Celtics are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and that’s what keeps them in games for the most part. Even without Avery Bradley, whose out for the season, the Celtics use their stiff perimeter defense to funnel things inside and keep the opposition from getting open quality shots.

Weaknesses:

The Heat’s lack of a scoring big man could affect them in this series. Without Chris Bosh the Heat’s best scoring big man is Udonis Haslem averaging a whopping 4.9ppg. Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass can light up a scoreboard and the Celtics will run pick and roll plays for them all night. If the Heat can’t answer back in the frontcourt it could mean some long nights for south beach’s finest. Expect James to try to do some work inside, but someone else has to step up and I don’t mean Wade.

The Celtics are having a lot of trouble scoring. In their series against the Sixers who have an athletic, speedy defense they were held under 95 points in five of seven games. The Heat have that same kind of defense and thrive off turnovers, so the Celtics will have to be disciplined and sound in moving the ball and getting open looks, otherwise the Heat can turn a close game into a blowout with a few turnovers.

X-Factors:

Haslem, Ronny Turiaf and Joel Anthony, must limit Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass. Bass lit the Sixers up for 27 in their game five win and Garnett scored 27 in the Celtics game seven win. Haslem, Turiaf and Anthony don’t have to score so anything they get on the offensive end will be a bonus, but they have to keep those two from giving the Celtics an advantage on the inside. The Sixers were lazy in their pick and roll defense in game seven against the Celtics and they paid dearly for it. The Heat can’t afford the same fate.

Rajon Rondo was able to do whatever he wanted against the Sixers. That could be the case in this series as well, but the Heat will make him earn it. If Marion Chalmers isn’t guarding him, you can best Wade will, especially with Ray Allen still working his way back form his ankle injury. That means that Rondo will be pressured every step and the Celtics offense depends on him finding the right guys in a position to shoot, so he has to step up to the challenge even if that means him shooting consistently from the outside. The good news for Boston is Rondo has killed the Heat in the past.

Prediction:

Even without Bosh the Heat come into this series the healthier and more rested team and that could go a long way considering the injury problems the Celtics are carrying to Miami. The Heat will try to get out and run and that could work, but even if it doesn’t they’re clearly the better team and while the Celtics will challenge them, they’ll fall short just as they have in the past. Heat in six

The Spurs are enjoying a renaissance season. After finishing first in the Western Conference for the second season in a row, they’ve ran through their competition with team play on offense and hustle on defense. Now the Spurs are looking to win another title and reaffirm themselves as a Western Conference power after a few years rebuilding.

The Thunder have spent all season showing the world that they’re ready to be crowned the new power in the west and this series is their final interview. The Thunder enjoyed a great regular season and showed the Lakers they need to start retooling, now they have to take down a veteran team that’s heavy on experience and as talented as anyone they’ve faced.

Strengths:

Unlike the recent popular method of lining up stars and throwing a bench together, the Spurs are a complete team on offense. Their main guys on offense all score in double figures, but everyone else chips in and that makes the Spurs scary, because their opponents have to guard EVERYONE. In the first round only James Anderson and Patrick Mills went more than one game without scoring. In the second round the Spurs had at least nine guys score a point in every game.

While the Thunder don’t share the ball as much, Durant, Westbrook and Harden all play within their team system. They share the ball among each other, they look for each other and they have no problem going to the hot hand even if it means scoring less. At crunch time and when the desperately need a bucket, head coach Scott Brooks will have them run a play instead of just setting up and isolation play and if the play doesn’t work then they can take their man one-on-one.

Weaknesses:

The Spurs don’t get much scoring in the paint besides Tim Duncan. Matt Bonner is more of an outside threat and has been playing limited minutes because Boris Diaw has been playing well, but even he’s been inconsistent throughout the playoffs. Tiago Splitter is more of a defender than anything else and gets his points off putbacks and easy lay-ins. With the Thunder’s interior defense as strong as it is, the Spurs might have to rely on their backcourt for points.

The Thunder’s weakness in this series is their lack of depth in the backcourt. Westbrook plays heavy minutes and although Harden comes off the bench he plays starter minutes, but behind them there isn’t much. Derek Fisher is more of a vocal leader than anything else and his defensive skills are long gone. Thabo Sefolosha is a solid defender, and he’ll hit a few shots, but he’s not going to scare anyone on the offensive side of the court. If Westbrook or Harden get in foul trouble and have to ride the pine early the Spurs could take advantage.

X-Factors:

Boris Diaw is the X-Factor for the Spurs. With Duncan being the only scoring threat for the Spurs frontcourt, Diaw is going to have to use his range and shot to be the second threat. He did a great job in their series against the Clippers and Gregg Popovich has given him extended minutes over Matt Bonner because he can shoot three’s as well as score with his back to the basket and rebound.

Russell Westbrook will be the guy who the Thunder will need to step up, but not for his offense. He’s going to have to limit Tony Parker who’s already said he’s coming right after Westbrook when this series starts. Westbrook can light up the scoreboard, but he barely had to play defense against the likes of Steve Blake, who can’t score and Ramon Session who forgot how to score. In this series he’s going to have to keep an eye on Parker of the Thunder will get rolled on (Parker scored 42 points in a win against the Thunder during the regular season).

Prediction:

This is going to be a tough, hard fought series. Both teams have a lot to prove and both teams have a deep skill set. Even their home and road records are almost identical so home court won’t be an advantage to either team. The Thunder are ready to be crowned the best in the west and they’re peaking at the right time. Unfortunately for them, the Spurs found the right mix of veteran savvy and youthful effort. The Spurs will win, but the Thunder won’t make it easy. Spurs in seven

The Lakers saw their season end last night after coming into the season with a lot to prove and a lot of doubters. While the Lakers were never considered one of the top contenders at any point this season they were still considered dangerous and with the season over and the Lakers very limited in their off-season options that will change barring a ton of luck and the perfect moves.

Let’s start with the significant problems the Lakers have.

First off Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol are the only players on the Lakers that are considered threats and once the playoffs start you can forget about Gasol, who becomes a ghost in the paint.

In game five against the Thunder, the Lakers entire bench scored five points combined. Mike Brown, knowing he needed all hands on deck played Steve Blake just ten minutes opting to give Ramon Sessions most of the game at point guard and he played miserably scoring just eight points on 1-6 shooting with six turnovers.

Besides the entire supporting cast offering no support, their top three options aren’t very good together. According to NBA.com the Lakers outscored their opponents by just 2.8 points per possession which isn’t that much considering the talent they provide.

However, it’s really not that surprising considering Bryant’s habit for perimeter jumpers, Gasol’s tendency to stay out of the paint and Bynum’s disappearing acts, something is always holding these three guys back.

Now let’s take a look at the Lakers options.

The cap for next season is projected to be around $58 million. The Lakers are over that today, and that’s before they pick up Bynum’s $16 million option (which they will whether or not they keep him). Once that happens that will put the Lakers around $80 million. The Luxury tax won’t hurt them anymore than it did this season but because of it they’ll be restricted.

The Lakers will not have access to the Mid-Level exception which is $5 million a year for four years (most second and third free tier free agents end up with this deal). The luxury tax repeater penalty will also affect the Lakers. The Lakers are over the cap this year and will be next year and in 2013-‘14 Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol will make $50 million combined, which all but puts them over the cap that season. Which means in 2014-‘15 they’ll have to pay 1.5 times the normal tax rate, so the Lakers aren’t far away from full salary dump role, but back to this season.

Without the Mid-Level exception the Lakers are left with the mini exception which is a three year deal worth about $3 million a year and the veteran’s minimum exception. With the free agent crop not being that great the top guys (Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Jason Terry to name a few) will demand more money than the Lakers can offer.

On top of that the Lakers don’t have a first round pick in this year’s draft. This means the Lakers will HAVE to trade either Bynum or Gasol, if they want to get better. The Lakers could amnesty Metta World Peace (owed $15 million over the next two years) or Steve Blake ($8 million over the next two years), but that would leave major holes in an already weak rotation.

With the Thunder, Grizzlies, Nuggets and Clippers all on the rise, the Spurs enjoying a resurgence and the Mavericks expected to be very aggressive in free agency, the Lakers could be left at the bottom of the top eight in the West, if they’re that lucky.

The Clippers are coming off their best season in franchise history making it to the second round of the playoffs before being demolished by the San Antonio Spurs, who all of a sudden look like title contenders.

Even though the Clippers barely challenged the Spurs, we still need to give them credit for what was an incredible season for them. Chris Paul carried the Clippers most of the season along with Blake Griffin who was a nightly highlight reel and even found a way to improve his defense (he’s still a swinging gate however) DeAndre Jordan proved he was worth the money the Clippers gave him and Mo Williams and Nick Young came on nicely after Chauncey Billups went down for the season.

Now the Clippers enter an off-season that’s full of questions and the answers will ultimately decide is Chris Paul sticks around after the end of next season of if he ships out.

The first question is whether to keep Vinny Del Negro. The Clippers have a team option on Del Negro, but he was almost fired during the season until Chris Paul took over for five games. Clippers owner Donald Sterling has to decide if Del Negro can lead the Clippers to the next level or if like the Bulls it’s time to hire someone else. The good news for Del Negro is that the team wants him there and felt he was a big part of why they made it so far.

The easiest move for the Clippers is Blake Griffin is eligible for an extension and it’s almost a fact that he’ll get it at some point between this off-season and the midway point of next season.

In between those moves are the fact that Randy Foye, Nick Young, Chauncey Billups, Kenyon Martin, Reggie Evans and Bobby Simmonds are all free agents this season.

Foye and Young were a large part of the Clippers backcourt this season, especially after Billups went down with a torn achillies tendon. Both guys are natural scorers who could be more dedicated on defense, but considering the amount of teams that need a complementary scorer (Heat, Lakers, Celtics, Bulls and Magic) Someone will throw $5 million at one of these players.

Billups has said he will play next season, but he’ll have to prove he can first. While achillies injuries aren’t career-killers, Billups will be 36 by the time the season starts, so it could be hard on him to play at the level he and the rest of the league is used to when he comes back.

Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin were part of a solid second unit in the frontcourt, but Martin is going to want more than the $2.5 million he got this season and Simmonds will want an increase from his $1.2 million.

The Clippers can chase some of these players as they were ninth in the cap this season and with all the players above coming off the books, they’ll be under this season’s cap figure of $58,044,000. That means most of these guys could come back to the Clippers and they’ll be contenders next season, but it’s all or nothing in free agency because they don’t have a first round pick in this year’s draft, although that’s not a big deal as this is considered a weak draft.

This off-season could make or break the Clippers for years to come. If they do things right, it could mean Paul staying, Griffin being locked in for years to come and the Clippers becoming a Western Conference power. If not it could mean Paul leaving, Del Negro being replaced, everyone rolling out and Griffin being the only reason the Clippers draw a crowd.

Both Western Conference series are heading to the Staples Center, meanwhile the Celtics took control of their series on the road and the Pacers showed the Heat that missing Chris Bosh hurts, but shutting down Dwayne Wade kills them. So let’s take a look at each series and discuss the most important storylines.

2) Miami Heat vs. 3) Indiana Pacers, Pacers lead the series 2-1 

Last season everyone bashed Chris Bosh for being the weak link in the south beach trio. This season everyone has found out just how important Bosh is to this team because the Heat’s cast of characters including Joel Anthony, Udonis Haslem and Ronny Turiaf can’t hit a shot further than three feet away from the basket.. But a bigger reason for the Heat’s struggles is Dwayne Wade can’t hit a shot right now.

Wade scored 29 and 24 points in games one and two respectively, but he shot 8-23 (34 percent) in game one and 8-22 (36 percent) in game 2 before arguably the worst performance of his career on Thursday night with a 2-13 performance and cursing out his coach.

Now you can expect Wade to come out and try to win the game himself on Sunday, but if he continues to shoot under 40% it won’t matter because he’ll need a ton of free throws to make it seem like he had a good scoring night.

4) Boston Celtics vs. 8) Philadelphia 76ers, Celtics lead series 2-1

The Celtics got all three of their stars on track for the first time in this series and as a result they dominated game 3. The question now is can they keep that up? the Sixers played way off Rajon Rondo for most of the game allowing him to drive and take mid-range jumpers, but the Sixers are very good at making adjustments, so expect them to throw some different looks at Rondo tonight. Also despite scoring 24 points, Paul Pierce shot 6-17 in the game, so if the doesn’t get to the line as much as he did in game three, the Celtics could be in trouble again.

The Sixers meanwhile need Evan Turner and Andre Iguodala to go back to being aggressive and getting to the basket. Combined they shot 4-16 in game three and settled for way too many jump shots. If those two have a good night the Sixers will have a great chance of winning games in this series.

2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs 3) L.A. Lakers, Thunder lead series 2-0

The Thunder took advantage of the Lakers supporting cast in game two and they’re going to continue to do so.

Ron Artest, Steve Blake and to a certain extent Pau Gasol don’t scare the Thunder in the fourth quarter of game two. SI’s Zack Lowe explains it in depth here but the short version is that the Thunder play so far off those three guys, that Andrew Bynum and Kobe Bryant can’t get the looks they want late in games.

Don’t expect this to change because although Artest has been a nice supporting piece for the Lakers, they’re not going to him late a game (then again no one thought Blake would get the ball either). The only reason Steve Blake was on the court to take that shot in game 2 is because Ramon Sessions is playing so bad in the playoffs Mike Brown doesn’t trust him and the Lakers entire bench scored just eleven points in game two, so none of those guys are going to break out anytime soon.

1) San Antonio Spurs vs. 5) L. A. Clippers

Things are really bad for the Clippers right now. The Spurs are running an offensive clinic on the Clippers, using patience and running their sets again and again until someone gets an open look.
Chris Paul has almost as many turnovers as assists (13-15) and Blake Griffin is the only person on the Clippers who took more than ten shots in game two.

Then there’s Boris Diaw. For most of the regular season he was a overweight stiff for the Bobcats, but on the Spurs, he’s a skilled forward who can stretch the court with his shot and still get in the lane to score and rebound. This is a testament to Gregg Popovich’s skills as a coach. Most people thought Diaw would be a bit player on the Spurs during their playoff run, but instead he’s starting and playing more minutes than Manu Ginobili and Stephen Jackson and it took him no time to blend into the Spurs’ offense.

The Clippers are going home so hopefully they can find their offense and defense, but the Spurs were 22-11 on the road this season. Their experience, lineup and demeanor on both sides of the ball might just be too much for the Clippers, who were thrown together during the off-season and were forced to come together on the fly.

Tonight the Celtics and Sixers play a pivotal game three that could swing the entire series. If the Sixers win they get homecourt and a 2-1 lead, if the Celtics win they reaffirm control and put some fears to bed about Paul Pierce’s knee.

In the late game the Lakers will try to even the series after being embarrassed on Monday by the Thunder, while OKC will try to put a stranglehold on the series with another blowout victory.

Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers

In game two the Celtics had no ball movement, had the wrong people taking shots and took too many contested shots in the fourth quarter. If the Celtics want to win tonight they’ll have to start trusting each other on offense and make the extra pass as well as wait for their plays to develop if they want to win.

The Celtics also have to find their defense. In game two Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday combined for 28 points and had no trouble getting into the paint whenever they wanted. Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley will have to improve their defense if they want to give the Celtics a chance.

For the Sixers to continue to be successful they just have to play their game. In game two they had just 17 assists, but everyone who played scored at least four points, including Jodie Meeks who played just six minutes. The Sixers don’t have a legitimate star, so in order for them to be in games they know sharing the ball and keeping the offense flowing is a must.

The Sixers also need to take advantage of an ailing Paul Pierce. Although Pierce will never admit his sprained MCL is bothering him, you can tell just by watching him on the court that it is. With Pierce unable to score it puts more pressure on Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen who are nursing their own injuries. If the Sixers can continue to take Pierce out of the game it takes away the Celtics closer and one of their best long range shooters.

L.A. Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Lakers need to play some defense to win a game in this series. The Thunder took advantage of Andrew Bynum backing off pick and rolls all night and they made Ron Artest chase Kevin Durant all over the court which is something he’s not good at. Also NO ONE was able to guard Russsell Westbrook. All of that has to change if the Lakers want to stay in tonight’s game.

Offensively the Lakers did a good job as Kobe Bryant took under 20 shots, Artest chipped in with 12 points and Andre Bynum had a double-double. However you have to wonder if Kobe’s lack of shots was due to him playing within the offense or because the Lakers were never in the game so he saved his energy? If tonight’s game is close that question will be answered.

The Thunder will need to stay hot with their mid-range jumpers. They hit a ton in game one and the Lakers had no answer for them. If the Thunder can stay hot from 15-18 feet this will be another blowout, but if they go cold the Lakers can use their frontcourt advantage to stay in the game.

Serge Ibaka did a solid job against Pau Gasol in game 1 and the Thunder will need that in game two. Gasol had just 10 points in game one and looked largely disinterested offensively. If Ibaka can use his physical defense against Gasol, it could mean taking him out game 2 as well.

The San Antonio Spurs are the No. 1 seed out west for the second season in a row, but unlike last year the Spurs aren’t exiting early. Tim Duncan knows he doesn’t have much time left and so does Gregg Popovich, who made sure Duncan was rested for the post-season. Now they’re ready to make a serious title run to give Duncan one more ring.

The Clippers survived the first round against a game Grizzlies team, now they take on a team in the Spurs with a wealth of experience from the coach to the 12th man. Even worse for the Clips is their top two players are dealing with injuries and might not be at the best come tonight’s tip-off.

Strengths:

The Spurs are great at sharing the ball on offrense. Although Tim Duncan (14.3ppg) and Tony Parker (21.0ppg) do the heavy lifting, the Spurs have six other guys that average between seven and ten points per game. That means no matter who’s on the court and who has the ball they’re a threat to score and that could pose a problem for the Clippers.

The Clippers still have Chris Paul and although Tony Parker matches up with him very well, Paul carried the Clippers into the second round, bad hip and all. If Paul can hold himself up for this series he maybe able to lead his team to the conference finals.

Weaknesses:

As much as the Spurs share the ball on offense they still have some issues. Duncan isn’t as mobile as he used to be so if Griffin can get healthy he could prove to be a problem for the Spurs. Also Stephen Jackson is still working his way into the Spurs offense and Manu Ginobili has become a lot less aggressive since coming back. Lastly DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter have their own deficiencies.

The Clippers meanwhile have to deal with Blake Griffin being hurt, not to mention the foul trouble he might get into. Griffin’s averaged four fouls per game in three games against the Spurs this season. If Griffin can’t play at his best, that means Reggie Evans and Kenyon Martin will have to pick up the slack and although they’ll be an improvement defensively, both will have trouble scoring.

X-Factors

Manu Ginobili can be the difference between a sweep and a six game series, if he can find his game. Ginobili hasn’t been driving as much since returning from injury, but if he can knock down some mid-range shots and open up the floor for himself, he can make this a tough series for the Clippers.

With Blake Griffin under 100% for this series, that put more pressure on Mo Williams and Caron Butler to put the ball in the hole. Butler overcame his broken hand and Williams has finally found a role on this team and has produced as a result. The Spurs perimeter defense won’t make it easy, but if the Clippers get a boost from these two it will definitely help.

Prediction:

The Spurs have at least six players with considerable playoff experience and one of the most unselfish teams in the league, when you combine that with Gregg Popovich’s coaching experience you have a team that knows what it takes to win. The Clippers have the talent and effort, but with both Paul and Griffin nursing injuries this could be over quickly. Spurs in five.

The OKC Thunder enter the semis for the second year in a row and this time Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and company are looking at nothing short of hanging a banner from the rafters.

The Lakers spent the regular season proving the Clippers have to wait their turn in L.A. Now they’ll prove the Thunder have to wait also as Kobe Bryant isn’t ready to concede the West to the young bucks just yet.

Strengths:

The Thunder have the backcourt advantage. Ron Artest will draw the assignment of guarding Kevin Durant, but that hasn’t really helped as he’s averaging 29.7ppg against the Lakers this season. The bigger issue is who’s going to defend Russell Westbrook. Steve Blake won’t be able to stay with him and although Ramon Sessions is a better defender, he won’t be able to stay with Westbrook either. If Westbrook is on his game he’s going to be a big problem for the Lakers.

The Lakers have the advantage on the inside. Andrew Bynum averaged 16.0ppg and 11.3rpg in three games against the Thunder this season and Pau Gasol averaged 18.3ppg and 9.7rpg. Serge Ibaka is a good defender, and it’s unknown if Kendrick Perkins will play. Behind those two the Thunder don’t have much, so if Kobe Bryant can calm his itch to take 30 shots a game the Lakers will have a definite advantage.

Weaknesses:

The Thunder’s biggest weakness is also their strength. During last year’s post-season Westbrook was practically killed by the media for taking bad shots turning the ball over and disrupting the flow of the Thunder’s offense. The Thunder had his back the whole time and that went a long way to building his confidence for this season. But if Westbrook reverts to his old ways it could mean the Thunder going three or four possessions without scoring and that could be the game.

The Lakers weakness is their second unit. Besides Jordan Hill who makes the most of his limited size, the rest of the Lakers backups are more space fillers than anything. The Lakers really missed Artest while he was out as Matt Barnes and Devin Ebanks provided nothing special on either side of the court.

X-Factors:

James Harden will come into this series with his mind on revenge and if he uses that anger the right way it could go a long way for the Thunder. Harden plays starter minutes although he comes off the bench and has never shied from the spotlight, so expect him to show the Lakers that he’s not afraid.

Artest made a huge impact in the Lakers game seven win over the Nuggets. Artest was the consistent three point shooter and shut down defender that the Lakers needed. Now he just needs to do the same in this series. If Artest can take some of the backcourt burden off Kobe Bryant and at the same time provide another scoring spark, then the Lakers will have a good shot at winning this series.

Prediction

This series will be tough to predict. The Thunder took two of three games from the Lakers during the season and the one game the Lakers won, Harden was hurt and Westbook along with Durant couldn’t hit a shot in overtime. The Lakers will want to prove that the West is still there’s for the taking and that another title shot isn’t as far away as most people think. The Lakers will give it a strong shot, but the Thunder have too many weapons. Thunder in Seven.

The Miami Heat stormed through the first round beating up on the shorthanded Knicks. Now LeBron James is out to prove the MVP award is small potatoes compared to lifting the NBA title and his teammates are along for the ride.

The Indiana Pacers are the team no one talks about and they’re fine with that as it gives them the element of surprise. Danny Granger leads the team in scoring, but they share the ball on offense and leave it all on the floor when it comes to defense.

Strengths:

The Heat rely on three of the associations best players to score, but the true strength is their defense. The Heat have a bevy of athletic players who focus on defense, because they know their big three will carry them offensively. Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem lead a defense that was fourth in points per game against this season.

The Pacers frontcourt is their strength. Danny Granger and David West average 36 points and 17 boards a game combined. Tyler Hansbrough is all effort and elbows coming off the bench and Roy Hibbert is coming into his own and the Pacers have a huge presence inside.

Weaknesses:

The Heat still rely on James, Wade and Chris Bosh for their offense and that could turn into a problem if they all have bad nights in the same game. They also lack a consistent three-point shooter. Mario Chalmers, James Jones and Mike Miller try their best, but are they really the guys you want shooting a corner three with the clock running down?

The Pacers lack a serious backcourt threat. George Hill is having a great season (14.2ppg), but besides him the Pacers don’t have anyone in their backcourt who the Heat are scared of. Leandro Barbosa provides a nice scoring punch off the bench but not much else. If the Pacers want to win this series they’re going to have to do it in the paint.

X-Factors:

Shane Battier will draw the assignment of guarding Danny Granger. If the Heat are to win this series, Battier will have to slow him down and Granger will use his post game on Battier. He’ll have to find a way to combat that, because the Heat don’t want to use James on Granger until late in games.

The Pacers will need a big series from Darren Collison again. Although he comes off the bench, he leads the team in steals and assists and plays starter minutes so it’ll be his responsibly to keep the Pacers offense going when the second unit comes in. The Heat thrive on having their starters play huge minutes and taking advantage of their opponents second units, and Collison will need to prevent that.

Prediction:

The Pacers will be a good test for the Heat, they use team play on both sides of the ball and lack the star power and fanfare that the Knicks had in the first round. That being said if the Heat take the Pacers lightly, they’ll be in for a big surprise.

The Heat should be able to overwhelm the Pacers with their big three, but it’s not going to be easy as the Pacers have the defense and the frontcourt presence to put a scare into the Heat and with the Celtics and Sixers killing each other on the other side of the bracket, this could be the best test for the Heat. Heat in six.